Skip to content

Plans Are Best Case Scenarios

“Plans are best-case scenarios. Let’s avoid anchoring on plans when we forecast actual outcomes. Thinking about ways the plan could go wrong is one way to do it.” (Location 2107)

Unless you are Sydney Sweeney, in which case make a powerpoint that will come true 202212200240

Something to think about while traveling with single point of failure items like medication -- 202301031256

The Folly of Using the Past To Derive the Future

As long ago as pharaonic Egypt, societies have tracked the high-water mark of rivers that periodically flood—and have always prepared accordingly, apparently assuming that floods will not rise higher than the existing high-water mark. (Location 2255)
black swan events, which are extreme, consequential events (that end in things like financial ruin), but which have significantly higher probabilities than you might initially expect. The name is derived from the false belief, held for many centuries in Europe and other places, that black swans did not exist, when in fact they were (and still are) common birds in Australia. (Location 3362)


A reminder that even with all the data possible, prediction is a fool's game 202302110154

The future of civilization is unknowable, because the knowledge that is going to affect it has yet to be created. (Location 3388)

its silly to prepare for what you already know to expect -and you cant prepare for what you cant expect. You can't predict the wheel if it hasn't been created otherwise you could use that knowledge accordingly.

“If you expect that you will know tomorrow with certainty that your boyfriend has been cheating on you all this time, then you know today with certainty that your boyfriend is cheating on you and will take action today, say, by grabbing a pair of scissors and angrily cutting all his Ferragamo ties in half. You won’t tell yourself, This is what I will figure out tomorrow, but today is different so I will ignore the information and have a pleasant dinner.” - The Black Swan, Nassim Taleb